Monday, March 3, 2008

A Must-Win situation?

Hillary Clinton campaign officials have said Clinton must win both the Texas and Ohio primaries tomorrow if she wants to stay competitive with Barack Obama for the Democratic Nomination. New Mexico governor Bill Richardson said on Sunday that Clinton should withdraw from the race if she loses either of those two states tomorrow. Don't forget Obama and Clinton are also trying to pick up delegates in Rhode Island and Vermont. 
Syracuse University political science professor Robert McClure doesn't endorse a specific strategy but advises Clinton might want to seek opposing viewpoints before conceding should she lose in the primaries tomorrow.
"While I understand the party pressure of it all," McClure says, "I'm not sure what I would do if I were she."
McClure thinks Clinton should decide to withdraw on her own terms by following the same logic of the Syracuse men's basketball team losing to Pittsburgh last Saturday after leading by 11 points with just under four minutes remaining. 
"If I were Pittsburgh yesterday with three minutes and 30 seconds and I'm 11 points behind, why the hell wouldn't I quit?" McClure said. "But they won."

Obama won the last 11 states because, McClure says, he represents the evolving political landscape that seeks change, optimism and partisanship. McClure thinks Clinton's record shows more partisanship but says Clinton's emphasis on her experience gives voters an impression she's a conventional politician. 
That's why McClure finds Clinton's evolving campaign tactics ineffective. She initially embraced Obama, then criticized him for his inexperience and recently appeared on Saturday Night Live.

"I don't believe anyone has won the presidency of the United States for being on Saturday Night Live," McClure says.

McClure says recent polling data suggests Clinton will win Ohio and Rhode Island while Obama will take Texas and Vermont. But he stresses voters still have time to change that outcome. No matter what happens in tomorrow's primary, McClure suggests both Clinton and Obama maintain their momentum to ensure enough delegates for the Democratic nomination. 

"Obama would need to be magnanimous in order to lesson somewhat the probability that Senator Clinton might be defiant," McClure says.

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